How the forecast has moved
Chance Democrats win control, updated with every batch of votes.
Races to watch
Pinned races first, then the closest contests. Tap a race for counties and the vote still out.
Every race
How this works
Start from expectation
Every county begins at its pre-election baseline. As votes arrive, the model learns how far results are running from that baseline, nationally, by state and by race.
Correct for counting order
Mail, early and Election Day ballots lean differently and are counted at different times. The model estimates each vote type's lean and projects every county's final mix, so an early blue or red mirage does not move the needle.
Learn turnout
When finished counties run above or below expected turnout, the estimate of the vote still out is revised in counties that are not finished.
Borrow strength
House races report one number per district. They borrow the state swing measured county by county in Senate and governor races in the same state.
Results and pre-election baselines come from the New York Times results feed, which is sourced from the Associated Press. The model is independent. The New York Times comparison is shown for reference. This is a personal tracker, not an official source.